Analyst says far-right general Vannacci poses growing threat to Meloni's coalition ahead of 2027 vote
An opinion piece in The Guardian argues that Roberto Vannacci's new National Future party is pulling support from the League and boxing Giorgia Meloni in on migration.
Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni faces her biggest challenge from the far right, in the form of a new party led by former army general Roberto Vannacci. That is the argument of Riccardo Alcaro, head of research at the Rome-based Istituto Affari Internazionali, in an opinion piece published by The Guardian. This story rests on that single piece of commentary.
According to Alcaro, Meloni's government became the longest serving in Italy's republican history last month, and her personal approval rating is about 41%. He wrote that this may still not be enough for her coalition to win Italy's next election, in 2027.
Vannacci was suspended from the armed forces after self-publishing a book in 2023, Alcaro wrote. He was elected to the European parliament in 2024 for Matteo Salvini's League, a junior partner in Meloni's coalition, but later quit and this year founded a new party, National Future. Alcaro wrote that polls suggest the League has been losing support to it.
The piece argues that an alliance between Meloni and Vannacci would make electoral sense but is difficult because of his positions. Alcaro wrote that Vannacci has made the "remigration" of foreign nationals central to his programme, proposes extra votes for parents, and backs a programme that says abortion "is not a right". On foreign policy, Alcaro wrote that Vannacci opposes support for Ukraine and has called for buying Russian gas, while backing Ukraine is a pillar of Meloni's international positioning.
Why it matters, in Alcaro's view, is that Meloni has so far answered the challenge by hardening her stance on migration. He linked Vannacci's rise to her suspension of Schengen free-movement rules for air and sea passengers from Spain, a 30% ceiling on students of foreign origin in schools, and the dispatch of 500 troops to Milan after riots there this week, ahead of further planned cost-of-living demonstrations.
Alcaro wrote that "it is far from certain this strategy can work". He argued that an alliance could improve Meloni's chances but that Vannacci "would be a restive and unreliable coalition partner". His preferred option is for Meloni to openly reject Vannacci's positions as incompatible with her politics and Italy's place in Europe, though he acknowledged this carries a real risk that she loses the election.
Much is not known. The piece does not give specific poll figures for National Future or the League, and it offers few details about the riots in Milan. Whether Meloni will seek a deal with Vannacci, or how voters will respond to either path, remains open. The views in the piece are those of its author, not established findings.
