European foreign policy figures warn a Democratic midterm win may not ease US-Europe tensions
Former diplomats and analysts quoted by Politico say a Congress run by Democrats could push Trump to focus on trade and foreign policy, with tougher demands on Europe.
European diplomats and foreign policy analysts are warning that a Democratic victory in the U.S. midterm elections may bring Europe no relief and could make relations with Washington worse, according to a column by Politico associate editor Jamie Dettmer.
The piece argues that if Democrats win Congress, President Donald Trump would face limits at home but would still be free to focus on foreign policy and trade, where Congress has relatively few checks on the executive branch. That could mean fresh disputes and tougher demands on Europe, the column says.
Wolfgang Ischinger, the veteran German diplomat and former chair of the Munich Security Conference, told Politico he expects the opposite of warmer relations.
“"We need to brace ourselves for not more harmonious transatlantic relations but more acrimony and even more Trump demands on Europe."”Wolfgang Ischinger, former chair of the Munich Security Conference
The question matters because many Europeans are hoping for a Democratic win. Politico cited a recent EU-wide survey in which 58 percent of respondents backed the Democrats and 18 percent backed the Republicans. Ischinger advised European leaders to avoid celebrating, saying public congratulations to Democrats "would be poisonous."
Not everyone agrees that restraint would help. Nathalie Tocci, a former adviser to two EU foreign policy chiefs, said, "I don't think Trump really needs any reasons or excuses to lash out at Europe." She said a setback for Trump's MAGA movement would give Europe's liberals and centrists a morale boost, given its ties to populist, far-right politicians in Europe.
Kurt Volker, who was George W. Bush's last U.S. ambassador to NATO, said Democrats would be "much more supportive of Ukraine and NATO" but could not direct Trump. He predicted Trump would make more use of pocket rescission, which Politico described as a contested legal theory for clawing back money Congress has approved.
Much remains unknown. The column was written as voters went to the polls, and its argument depends on Democrats doing as well as polls suggest. Volker said he was unsure whether Trump would relaunch military operations against Iran or leave that crisis to Europe and Asia. He suspects Trump will be careful about cutting U.S. deployments in Europe for fear of a backlash at home.
Bronwen Maddox, director and CEO of the Chatham House think tank, called Trump "extraordinarily hard to predict." She said European leaders should think about how much the United States has changed, whatever the result.
"I don't think America sees itself in Europe in the way it used to," Maddox told Politico.
This story is based on a single opinion column published by Politico.
