Brazil's changing working class pulls votes away from Lula ahead of run-off, BBC reports
A former industrial city that backed Lula in 2022 switched to Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round, as factory jobs gave way to service and gig work.
Osasco, a former industrial city near São Paulo, voted for left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2022. This month it switched to right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of Brazil's presidential election, according to a BBC report from the city.
Bolsonaro won the first round, and the two men face a run-off on Sunday. The BBC noted that every first-round winner since 1989 has gone on to be elected president.
The BBC links the shift to changes in who makes up Brazil's working class. Gilberto Almazan, who leads a metalworkers' union in Osasco, told the BBC that factories had closed and that workers had moved into services.
“"Metal, chemical, textile factories disappeared. And five malls were built."”Gilberto Almazan, metalworkers' union leader
Almazan described what he calls "Uber-isation": millions of Brazilians now drive, deliver food or run small businesses. He said many workers want "more freedom, flexibility of days and hours" rather than the welfare and collective action Lula offered.
This matters because Lula rose as a metalworker and union leader, and the BBC describes the union movement as integral to his support base. Voters the BBC spoke to mentioned the economy, crime, taxes and corruption. Many Bolsonaro supporters struggled to name specific policies he has proposed but said they wanted change. Flávio Bolsonaro has also faced accusations of corruption, which he denies.
Richard Lapper, who has written biographies of Lula and of Jair Bolsonaro, Flávio's father, called Lula a "victim of his own success." The BBC reported that unemployment fell to a record low and Brazil was taken off the UN's Hunger Map during Lula's current presidency. Lapper describes a crisis of "expectations": people are better off but don't feel it, because prices have risen and household debt and interest rates are high.
Abstention also played a part. According to the BBC, 33 million people did not vote in the first round, the highest abstention since 1998. Lula lost votes in some areas even though Bolsonaro did not gain more than his father did in 2022. Lula's campaign has focused on getting people out to vote, especially students, and says one rally in São Paulo drew about a million people. That figure is the campaign's own claim.
The BBC also pointed to the growth of the evangelical church. About a quarter of Brazilians now belong to it. Silas Malafaia, an influential pastor, told the BBC that Flávio Bolsonaro shares the church's values.
It is not yet known whether Lula's push to win back people who did not vote will change the outcome. It is also unclear how many first-round votes were cast for Bolsonaro rather than against Lula. The BBC said that among much of the new working class, the result felt more like a rejection of Lula than an endorsement of his rival.
